Analysis: Self-driving taxi is the future with CAGR hitting 81% during 2018-2023

2018-03-27  |  By Irene  |  In knowledge

According to Topology Research Institute(TRI) of TrendForce, autonomous shared robotaxis have started road testing from 2017, and the majority of participants set 2021 as the year to commercialize the services, which is a revolution to transportation. It’s estimated that the compound average growth rate(CAGR) of autonomous taxis will hit 81% from 2018 to 2023.

Level 5 driving autonomy is the ultimate goal of autonomous driving, said Lin Yahui, analyst of TrendForce, as to car-sharing operators, self-driving increases both car usage and traffic efficiency. 

Nevertheless, viable regulation framework for driverless car has yet to be established, therefore, conventional automakers and tech giants are seeing 2020 as the time node for the commercialization of level 4 automated driving.

Driving safety and efficient mobility are the core of car sharing, so autonomous taxi is an inevitable trend.

Global car-sharing operators started their deployment in 2016.
For example,
Uber announced partnership with Volvo, Ford and Daimler in a bid to achieve commercial use of self-driving fleet in 2021.
Lyft joined hands with GM and Waymo, also, it set up a research center to develop autonomous driving technologies, hoping to bring driverless taxis to the public in 2021. Lyft offered point-to-point car-hailing services in CES2018. 
Didi Chuxing built an autonomous driving lab in California in 2017.
Grab Taxi paired up with nuTonomy in self-driving testing, and Grab also expects to commercialize autonomous car-hailing services before 2021.

Level 3 automated vehicles are widely used on highways for freight and passenger transport, while the focus of Level 4 vehicles is to address the last mile of mobility, making it the best fit for autonomous car-sharing services.

Additionally, traffic jam, car park shortage and car plate lead to lower car ownership desire. In this case, the shared car market keeps expanding.
Lin added that though regulations for autonomous driving are still not in place, early deployment in the field is more secure to have a foothold in the new mobility market.


By Lin Yahui, TRI of TrendForce

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